PayPulse

AI-Powered Early Warning System

Detect Financial Stress
Before It's Too Late

Supplier payment intelligence that spots SME distress 4–8 weeks before traditional banking metrics ever change.

Built for NatWest · Hackathon 2026
Traditional Banking GREEN All clear — no issues detected
vs
PayPulse AI AMBER Stress detected in supplier payments
34 days earlier
detection
4-8 Weeks Earlier
748% Spread Increase
3/5 Suppliers Flagged
PayPulse

AI-Powered Early Warning
for SME Financial Stress

Detect supplier payment triage 4–8 weeks before traditional banking metrics change.

34Days Earlier
748%Spread Increase
3/5Flagged
Built for NatWest · Hackathon 2026

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Your Business Health

Join NatWest's AI-powered early warning system for SME financial stress detection.

  • Real-time supplier payment analysis
  • What-if scenario simulator
  • Consumer Duty outreach assistant
  • Bank RM portfolio risk view
Built for NatWest · Hackathon 2026

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Analyzing payment patterns...

Machine Learning Engine

AI Predictive Intelligence

Real ML models trained on payment data — Gradient Boosting forecasting, Random Forest risk classification, and Isolation Forest anomaly detection.

Forecaster

GradientBoosting
Training MAE —

Risk Classifier

RandomForest
Accuracy —

Anomaly Detector

IsolationForest
Status —

What-If Analysis

Scenario Simulator

Explore how different actions change the risk outlook.

Risk Intelligence Platform

How PayPulse Works

Supplier payment intelligence that detects financial stress before traditional credit monitoring.

1

Payment Data

Ingest supplier payment records, timing, and contractual terms

2

Triage Detection

AI detects selective payment prioritization across suppliers

3

Risk Scoring

Multi-factor risk assessment with confidence intervals

4

Proactive Action

Automated alerts, outreach, and intervention recommendations

Core Innovation

How PayPulse Detects Risk Before Default

  • When an SME borrower faces cash flow pressure, they begin selectively prioritising which suppliers to pay — a behaviour we call "payment triage."
  • Critical suppliers (materials, key services) get paid on time. Others are systematically delayed.
  • This creates a measurable divergence in payment timing across the supplier portfolio — a signal PayPulse detects automatically.
Gap in Market

The Blind Spot in Traditional Credit Monitoring

  • Traditional banking relies on: loan repayment status, revenue trends, and credit scores.
  • An SME can appear GREEN on all these metrics while quietly stretching supplier payments — a leading indicator of distress.
  • By the time loan payments are missed, the stress has been building for weeks or months. The intervention window has closed.
NatWest Advantage

Proactive Risk Detection for NatWest

  • PayPulse analyses supplier payment patterns week by week across the borrower's key relationships.
  • Detects when the spread between fastest-paid and slowest-paid suppliers starts diverging.
  • Flags stress 4-8 weeks before traditional credit metrics deteriorate.
  • Enables NatWest to intervene proactively — reducing defaults, protecting lending relationships, and supporting SME recovery.

NatWest Risk Classification

  • LOW — All suppliers paid within normal terms. No triage behaviour. Standard monitoring.
  • MEDIUM — Payment triage detected. Some suppliers delayed. Proactive RM outreach recommended.
  • HIGH — Severe payment stress. Multiple suppliers significantly delayed. Escalate to Credit Committee.

Business Value for NatWest

  • Reduce SME loan defaults by detecting stress weeks before traditional signals.
  • Lower provisioning costs through earlier, more effective intervention.
  • Strengthen SME relationships by offering proactive support before crisis.
  • Scalable across the portfolio — automated monitoring of thousands of SME accounts.
PayPulse for NatWest
AI-Driven SME Risk Intelligence
NatWest Hackathon 2026